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AG 2007 10 15
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AG 2007 10 15
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Last modified
2/1/2009 12:18:33 PM
Creation date
11/27/2017 11:31:50 AM
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Meeting Minutes
Doc Type
Minutes
Meeting Minutes - Date
10/15/2007
Board
Board of Commissioners
Meeting Type
Regular
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ATTACHMENT: "Ozone population exposure analysis for selected urban areas". <br />For the record, the suggestions I made for clarification in this section were ignored for the most <br />part. (Obviously they cannot be addressed now, as they are not mere errata.) More specifically: <br />Page 22: No estimate has been given of the effect of using the school children's D and A as a <br />surrogate for all individuals, in particular whether this choice is more liberal or conservative than <br />drawing the sequence of daily time activity patterns at random from the population as a whole. <br />Page 54: The report does: not explain how to interpret the person-day estimates, in relation to <br />setting NAAQS, nor about how the aggregates were computed. In the case of person-days, was <br />this done by: first calculating the expected number of days of exposure per person based on a <br />number of APEX runs; and then multiplying by sub-population size? Some statement of the <br />reliability of these estimates should have been given. <br />Page 79-80: APEX's underestimation of true exposure is of concern as is the use of weekly the <br />aggregation of exposures because the impact on the latter of the ecologic effect (that is not <br />addressed in the report). <br />The errata I pointed out were also ignored in the Jan 07 revision. <br />Page 21: Clock hour "i" rather than "I" is correct, a result of the software's propensity to <br />capitalize "i" whenever it appears alone without quotations around it. <br />Page 40: Section 3.8.2 referred to on this page does not exist even in the final Staff report, so it <br />was not clear what fractions were actually taken from Appendix A and used. <br />MEMORANDUM: "Analysis of uncertainty in ozone population exposure modeling" by <br />John Langstaff <br />Page 8. The common practice of log transforming data from heavy tailed distributions leads <br />naturally to GM =exp (AM) and GSD =exp (SD), and asymmetric 95% confidence intervals for <br />both, (GM/GSD2~ GM*GSDZ) for the GM for example. Therefore, I remain puzzled by the <br />discussion of symmetric intervals on this page, a discussion that I commented about in the Draft. <br />Page 14. The final reportrepeats an earlier error, calling the cross-validation method the <br />"jackknife." <br />CHAPTERS <br />Page 5-18: The analysis in Section 5.3.1.3 is a major improvement over the Drag report. The <br />concern for model uncertaainty has been well addressed and honestly reported. The sensitivity to <br />prior model probabilities'shown in Figure 5-3 at low ozone concentrations correctly reflects the <br />relevant lack of data at that end of the exposure spectrum and points to the need for more <br />experiments in future work to better characterize that part of the exposure response curve. <br />V L~ <br />C-33 <br />
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