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Scenario Analysis Scenario analysis is brainstorming by transportation personnel, emergency responders, and contractors to identify threats to the system and to assess vulnerability to those threats. By matching threats to critical assets, Cabarrus County Transportation Service identifies the capabilities required to counteract vulnerabilities. This activity promotes awareness and enables staff to more effectively recognize, prevent, and mitigate the consequences of threats. For each scenario, the Cabarrus County Transportation Service has attempted to identify the potential impacts of probable threats using a standard risk analysis protocol in which threats are segmented by probability from low to high and severity of impact from modest to catastrophic. Scenario -based analysis is not an exact science but rather an illustrative tool demonstrating potential consequences associated with low -probability to high -impact events. To determine the actual need for additional countermeasures, and to provide the rationale for allocating resources to these countermeasures, the Cabarrus County Transportation Service uses the scenario approach to pinpoint the vulnerable elements of the critical assets and make evaluations concerning the adequacy of current levels of protection. At the conclusion of the scenario -based analysis, the Cabarrus County Transportation Service assembled a list of prioritized vulnerabilities for its top critical assets. These vulnerabilities are divided into the following categories: • lack of planning; • lack of coordination with local emergency responders; • lack of training and exercising; and • lack of physical security Based on the results of the scenario analysis, the Cabarrus County Transportation Service identified countermeasures to reduce vulnerabilities. 2.2c. -IDENTIFIED POTENTIAL TRANSIT SYSTEM THREATS Cabarrus County Transportation Service is committed to focusing on organizational emergency planning activities and preparing its transit staff to react to any potential threatening event. Cabarrus County Transportation Service understands that threat reaction planning and preparation is a dynamic and ongoing process which requires constant attention and organizational energy. It is essential to identify each potential threat that a transit system could face, evaluate those threats in terms of their potential impact on transit system assets and to analyze transit system vulnerability to those threats. The Cabarrus County Transportation Service has done such a Threat and Vulnerability Assessment for the following potential threats: Completed "THREAT AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS" forms and "THREAT AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT" forms for each of the below listed threats are found in the section of this document entitled SECURITY PLAN SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS at SECTION 7.5. Attachment number 5 \n F-5 Page 320