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4
<br />Existing home sales and Housing Authorizations improve compared to October 2010
<br />Data from the NC Association of
<br />Realtors show existing home sales and
<br />North Carolina Existing Home Sales
<br />January2008 to Present
<br />building permits in October decreased
<br />10000
<br />compared to September, but were both
<br />9000
<br />Oct -11
<br />higher than their levels in October 2010.
<br />(10/11 compared to 10/10)
<br />12 Month Average
<br />8000
<br />(revised)
<br />On another positive note, the
<br />Change I %Change
<br />Change %Change
<br />7000
<br />Properties with Foreclosure Filings
<br />foreclosure filings for October were
<br />6000
<br />02008
<br />below their 2010 level as well. As the
<br />5000
<br />02009
<br />chart to the right indicates, year -over-
<br />4000
<br />2010
<br />year comparisons are a more important
<br />3000
<br />0 2011
<br />indicator of vitality for housing numbers
<br />2000
<br />6,642
<br />due to heavy seasonal variations.
<br />1000
<br />1,873
<br />Housing activity tends to peak in the
<br />0
<br />176
<br />summer and decline towards the end of
<br />1,972
<br />the year. Housing sales continue to be
<br />lower than 2008 but have improved
<br />Source: N.C. Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Data
<br />compared to sales in 2010 after the housing tax credit expired.
<br />RealtyTrac; N.C. Assoc. of Realtors, Existing Homes Sales Data; U.S. Census, Table 2 -New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized
<br />Index falls to lowest level of 2011 behind declines in building permits and manufacturing hours and earnings
<br />The NC State University Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (the "Index "), a forecast of the
<br />economy's direction four to six month ahead, rose in October, the first gain in the Index since June. All of the
<br />North Carolina -based components of the Index improved, with the leader being a 31% jump in building
<br />permits. Only the nation index (ECRI -WLI) retreated. The Index's gain ends a multi -month decline and puts its
<br />level only slightly below the reading of a year ago. In the past year, the Index has wavered within a narrow
<br />band, resulting in a "start- stop" pattern to the state economy. Without a significant "breakout" — either up or
<br />down —the outlook is for more of the same.
<br />NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
<br />too
<br />95
<br />90
<br />85
<br />80
<br />75
<br />70
<br />The index was developed by Dr. Michael Walden ( michael walden (@ncsu.edu at NC State. Dr. Walden has a PhD in
<br />economics and over thirty years of experience studying the North Carolina economy. Special thanks to Dr. Walden for
<br />allowing the reproduction of the Index (November 2011, volume 2, number 11) in this publication. The complete
<br />online version of the index may be found here.
<br />Policy, Research & Strategic Planning; November Mz1ctir ?j tnber 1
<br />1 -1 Page 414
<br />v Q- U m a lu :1 U ar P n C u v a Q > U m 2 rg U
<br />., o 0 0 .� c o m ., o ro o o c o
<br />nr- r -r•r- rn WcoMc c = ommMMMmon 0 0 0 0 ter, �r,rH
<br />0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '_' 0 `—' 0 0 0 r' 0
<br />N N N N rq N N N r, N 4 N N N " C14 rj N N N N rj N N N N
<br />Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden
<br />North Carolina
<br />Housing Market Statistics
<br />Previous Month
<br />Last Year -Same Month
<br />Sep -11
<br />Oct -11
<br />(10/11 compared to 9/11)
<br />(10/11 compared to 10/10)
<br />12 Month Average
<br />(revised)
<br />(Preliminary)
<br />Change I %Change
<br />Change %Change
<br />(Beg.of11 /10- Endof10 /11)
<br />Properties with Foreclosure Filings
<br />2,183
<br />2,939
<br />756
<br />34.6%
<br />(1,879)
<br />-39.0%
<br />2,869
<br />Existing Homes - Units Sold
<br />6,800
<br />6,298
<br />(502)
<br />-7.4%
<br />586
<br />10.3%
<br />6,642
<br />Housing Units Auth. by Bldg. Permit
<br />1 2,060
<br />1,873
<br />(187)
<br />-9.1%
<br />176
<br />10.4%
<br />1,972
<br />RealtyTrac; N.C. Assoc. of Realtors, Existing Homes Sales Data; U.S. Census, Table 2 -New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized
<br />Index falls to lowest level of 2011 behind declines in building permits and manufacturing hours and earnings
<br />The NC State University Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (the "Index "), a forecast of the
<br />economy's direction four to six month ahead, rose in October, the first gain in the Index since June. All of the
<br />North Carolina -based components of the Index improved, with the leader being a 31% jump in building
<br />permits. Only the nation index (ECRI -WLI) retreated. The Index's gain ends a multi -month decline and puts its
<br />level only slightly below the reading of a year ago. In the past year, the Index has wavered within a narrow
<br />band, resulting in a "start- stop" pattern to the state economy. Without a significant "breakout" — either up or
<br />down —the outlook is for more of the same.
<br />NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
<br />too
<br />95
<br />90
<br />85
<br />80
<br />75
<br />70
<br />The index was developed by Dr. Michael Walden ( michael walden (@ncsu.edu at NC State. Dr. Walden has a PhD in
<br />economics and over thirty years of experience studying the North Carolina economy. Special thanks to Dr. Walden for
<br />allowing the reproduction of the Index (November 2011, volume 2, number 11) in this publication. The complete
<br />online version of the index may be found here.
<br />Policy, Research & Strategic Planning; November Mz1ctir ?j tnber 1
<br />1 -1 Page 414
<br />v Q- U m a lu :1 U ar P n C u v a Q > U m 2 rg U
<br />., o 0 0 .� c o m ., o ro o o c o
<br />nr- r -r•r- rn WcoMc c = ommMMMmon 0 0 0 0 ter, �r,rH
<br />0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '_' 0 `—' 0 0 0 r' 0
<br />N N N N rq N N N r, N 4 N N N " C14 rj N N N N rj N N N N
<br />Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden
<br />
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