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NATIONAL ECONOMIC UPDATE Moving into the fourth quarter of 2011, growth appears to be rising as solid gains are expected in consumer spending and business fixed investment. Efforts to reduce the U.S. budget deficit were also discussed this month when the Super Committee meeting on Nov. 23 ended with no final decision. The Euro zone appears to be entering into a recession, which could affect U.S. interest rates. National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • In the third quarter of 2011, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. • The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions in personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, exports and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions for private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Manufacturer's Shipments, Inventories and Orders • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $197.7 billion in October, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, up five of the last six months, increased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $203.0 billion after falling 0.5 percent in September. Personal Income & Consumer Spending • Real disposable income increased 0.3 percent in October, compared to a 0.1 percent decrease in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. • Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October. • Personal consumption expenditures increased $8.2 billion or 0.1 percent in October, smaller than the $15.5 billion increase seen in September. Housing • Sales of new single - family houses in October 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, with a median sales price of $212,300 according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. • Single- family housing starts, an indicator of current economic activity, were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 425,000 in September which was higher than in August. • Single- family authorizations (building permits), an indicator of future economic activity, were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 434,000 in October, 5.1 percent above the revised September figure of 413,000. Consumer Confidence • National consumer confidence increased in November by 15.1 points to 56.0, a notable increase over the September (46.4) and October (39.8) readings. If you would like to be added to the distribution list please contact: Derek Ramirez, Economist, PRSP ( dramirezCcDnccommerce.com, 919 - 715 -2358) Report Author: Derek Ramirez — Economist Contributing Author: Kristin Bunn - Economist Previous Monthly Overviews are available on Commerce's website by clicking here or at the link below: http: / /www.nccommerce. com /en /AboutDOC/ Publ icotionsReports/ EconomicDevel opmentReports /Month/y0verview.htm Policy, Research & Strategic Planning; November M1ctir 6lrtnber 1 1 -1 Page 415