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NATIONAL ECONOMIC UPDATE Although the recession has officially ended a return to prerecession levels of activity has not been reached. Further, certain hard hit sectors, such as real estate, still face economic difficulties. However, the most recent data suggests consumers are beginning to spend more and National GDP is on the rise. Jobs • There were 3.1 million job openings on the last business day of December, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Since the most recent series trough in July 2009, the level of job openings has risen by 0.7 million, or 31 percent. This trough immediately followed the end of the recession in June 2009 (as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research). National GDP Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. Manufacturer's Shipments, Inventories and Orders • New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $6.2 billion or 3.1 percent to $201.0 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This increase followed three consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.4 percent December decrease. • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up four of the last five months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $202.8 billion. • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up thirteen consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $324.7 billion from December. Personal Income & Consumer Spending • Personal Income increased $133.2 billion, or 1.0 percent, and disposable personal income increased $78.3 billion or 0.7 percent in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent. Real disposable income increased 0.4 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in December. • Real Personal Consumption Expenditures decreased 0.1 percent in January, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in December. Housing • Sales of new single - family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 284,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.6 percent below the revised December rate of 325,000 and is 18.6 percent below the January 2010 estimate of 349,000. • Single- family housing starts in January were at a rate of 413,000; this is below the revised December figure of 417,000. If you would like to be added to the distribution list please contact: Jared Wiener, Director of Economic Analysis, PRSP (jwiener @nccommerce.com, 715 -4199) Michael Haley, Policy Director, PRSP (mhaley @nccommerce.com, 715 -6373) Report Author: Derek Ramirez — Economist Additional Report Contributors: Kristin Bunn — Economist, Meihui Bodane and Anna Lea — Market Research Analyst Policy, Research & Strategic Planning; February MgcpR"a nber 1 1 -1 Page 260