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Draft 1.1— For Discussion Only, Not for Citation reliance Cabarrus could create 28,292 new jobs based just on local demand, and they would pay $1.2 billion in additional annual wages. Capturing 25% of these jobs would mean about 7,073 new jobs — enough to put almost every unemployed resident back to work. A more comprehensive leakage analysis is possible using IMPLAN, the Minnesota Input - Output Model used extensively by economic development agencies nationwide. IMPLAN corrects, unifies, and fills in gaps (like farmers and self - employed individuals) in the Economic Census data. It also can model how changes in one industry can lead to changes in other local industries (indirect effects) and changes in local personal consumption (induced effects). A leakage analysis with IMPLANS finds that 25% localization would generate 9,491 new jobs: 5,208 directly, 2,157 indirectly, and 2,127 induced. IMPLAN predicts, moreover, that these new jobs will lead to $397 million more in wages each year, $676 million in additional annual value -added production, and $59 million in indirect business taxes. Leakage analysis identifies possible jobs from local demand. But it's important to vet what's possible for what's really plausible. Natural resource and other constraints probably will prevent the county from realizing 171 of the jobs or about 3% of the direct jobs. Whether the other 97% are plausible depends on local efforts to mobilize entrepreneurship, local- business partnerships, local purchasing, and local capital. The models for sucessful small businesses in all these sectors certainly exist in the United States, and the challenge for a new approach to economic- development is to identify, study, and replicate these models locally (most of these models can be found regionally as well). The choice of a 25% shift — as opposed to a 100% shift — assumes that 75% of these opportunities for import substitution will be missed. Some will be regarded as impractical. Some won't find the right entrepreneur or sufficient capital. Some will fail in execution. Readers who regard a 25% shift as still too ambitious a baseline are encouraged to shrink all these findings accordingly. Chart I summarizes our leakage findings for both a 25% shift and a more modest 10% shift. Chart 1 Economic Impacts of 10% and 25% Shifts 25% Shift 10 %Shift New Jobs 9,491 4,745 New Annual Wages $397,015,692 $198,507,846 New Annual Value Added $676,440,641 $338,220,320 New State & Local Tax Revenues 1 $61,189,839 $30,594,920 The local - living- economy approach to economic development prioritizes programs that not only cost little public money but also, over time, make money. These approaches are called meta - businesses, because like all businesses they cash now but their "market" is the population of local businesses in Cabarrus County. An example might be a business- 3 Attachment number 1 1 -4 Page 305