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Three different residential growth scenarios were evaluated to forecast 2015 and 2020 <br />population, household, and housing units for the Planning Area. These included: <br />1. 2009 -2014 Baseline — Use the 2009 -2014 ESRI- forecasted compound annual growth <br />rate of 4.2% for the Planning Area to calculate 2015 and 2020 population, households, <br />and housing units. <br />2. 2009 -2014 Baseline (Recession) — Use a lower compound annual growth rate to account <br />for the effects of the current economic recession. This analysis uses compound annual <br />growth rates of 2.5% between 2010 and 2012, 3.5% between 2013 and 2016, and 4.0% <br />between 2017 and 2020. <br />3. 2003 -2009 Study Area Housing Absorption — Use average for -sale closings and <br />assumed apartment absorption between 2003 and 2009. Following the ebb and flow of a <br />typical residential cycle to forecast the 2015 and 2020 population, household, and <br />housing unit increase in the Planning Area. <br />Graph 12 demonstrates the population forecasts between 2009 and 2020 using the three methods <br />described above. The final forecast was derived from taking a straight average of the three <br />methods. As expected, using the forecasted compound annual growth rate in Scenario 1 resulted <br />in the highest forecast, and the Recession Baseline in Scenario 2 was lowest. <br />6.2 Housing Unit Delivery Forecast <br />Table 16 demonstrates the result of taking a straight average of the forecasts based on the three <br />scenarios. In terms of population, the Planning Area could increase from approximately 17,700 <br />residents in 2009 to 26,800 residents in 2020, a 51.4% increase. The resulting 3.8% compound <br />March 2010 APPENDIX D: HALUP MARKET ANALYSIS 25 <br />AUGUST 2010 <br />Attachment number 2 <br />G -1 Page 434 <br />